Rublev, The Tour's Bounce-back Specialist In 2024
by Arthur Kapetanakis
In the countdown to the Nitto ATP Finals (10-17 November), our series, 'Towards Turin', will showcase qualified players and their path to the prestigious season finale.
Andrey Rublev’s imposing game is built on power far more than consistency. But the fiery 27-year-old has been a steady presence at the Nitto ATP Finals this decade, qualifying for the prestigious season finale each year since his 2020 debut.
Rublev has again sealed a spot in Turin in the 2024 season, during which he has often followed a barren stretch of results with some of his best tennis of the year. He is ninth in the PIF ATP Live Race To Turin after lifting trophies at the ATP Masters 1000 in Madrid and at an ATP 250 in Hong Kong, Rublev also reached the final at the Montreal Masters 1000, and is now preparing for his fifth consecutive Nitto ATP Finals appearance.
Lining up alongside Rublev in Turin this year will be Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev, Taylor Fritz, Casper Ruud and Alex de Minaur. Despite the quality of his competition, the 27-year-old will already be thinking about bettering his best Nitto ATP Finals result, a run to the semi-finals in 2022. So how has Rublev built up momentum across 2024?
RUBLEV’S 2024 STORY: BIG SCALPS ON BIG STAGES
Rublev rattled off wins in his first eight matches of the season, lifting the title in Hong Kong and reaching the quarter-finals at the Australian Open — his third consecutive Grand Slam quarter and his sixth in seven majors.
In April, he snapped a four-match losing streak with authority in Madrid to win his second career ATP Masters 1000 title, coming from a set down to beat Alcaraz along the way. Rublev fell to another four straight losses across May, June and July but, back on the hard courts in August, he knocked off World No. 1 Sinner en route to the Montreal final.
“When you win these kinds of matches, it gives you more confidence,” Rublev told ATPTour.com when asked about his victories against Sinner and Alcaraz, the top two players in the PIF ATP Rankings. “More [belief] that you can play these guys, fight with them, have chances to beat them.
“Of course it feels great to win a tournament knowing that you also beat great players on the way. Of course, during the tournament you would like to have as few great players to play as possible, that’s normal. But then if you win the tournament, it’s really good.”
INSIGHTS: ANDREY'S FIRST-STRIKE TENNIS
Rublev has one of the most feared forehands in the game and is a major threat any time he is on the attack. But did you know that he is also one of the very best on the ATP Tour at creating those offensive situations? Statistics from Tennis Data Innovations showcase those strengths.
According to TDI's INSIGHTS data as of 21 October, Rublev’s forehand shot quality (8.17) ranks seventh for 2024 on the ATP Tour, and he wins 70.7% of points in which he gains an attacking advantage — good for 16th this season. Exactly 27% of Rublev’s shots have been played in attack this season, thanks to his ability to set up points with big serves and a return shot quality (6.92) that ranks 12th.
Rublev in action at the US Open. Photo Credit: Corinne Dubreuil/ATP Tour
Rublev at the US Open. Photo: Corinne Dubreuil/ATP Tour
THREE PEAK PERFORMANCES
1) Keep Calm & Cool Alcaraz
A cool head helped Rublev find the clarity to knock out two-time defending champion Alcaraz on the Spaniard’s home soil in Madrid. On the way to the ATP Masters 1000 title, Rublev overpowered Alcaraz in a 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 victory — his first win against a Top 3 player in the PIF ATP Rankings since the 2022 Nitto ATP Finals.
Photo Credit: Corinne Dubreuil/ATP Tour
Photo Credit: Corinne Dubreuil/ATP Tour
2) Snapping Sinner's Streak
Jannik Sinner has proven himself the hard-court king this season, with titles at both majors on cement and three ATP Masters 1000s on the surface. But in the Montreal quarter-finals, Rublev snapped the World No. 1’s eight-match winning streak on hard courts with a 6-3, 1-6, 6-2 result that also moved him into eighth place in the PIF ATP Live Race To Turin. It was Rublev’s second win against a reigning No. 1 in the PIF ATP Rankings.
Photo Credit: Peter Staples/ATP Tour
Photo Credit: Peter Staples/ATP Tour
3) Hot Start In Hong Kong
Rublev’s path to his 15th tour-level title included three-set wins against #NextGenATP stars Arthur Fils and Shang Juncheng before his final victory over Emil Ruusuvuori. The top seed put a bow on the ATP Tour’s return to Hong Kong for the first time since 2002 with a big-hitting final performance, ripping 13 winners and saving the only break point he faced to secure the trophy.
Photo Credit: Peter Parks/AFP via Getty Images
Photo Credit: Peter Parks/AFP via Getty Images
MILESTONE MOMENT
After four straight defeats leading into the Mutua Madrid Open, Rublev completed an emphatic turnaround to claim “the most proud title” of his career at the ATP Masters 1000. To win his second trophy at that prestigious level in as many years (Monte-Carlo 2023), the powerful Rublev not only had to contend with on-court tests from the likes of Alcaraz, Fritz and his championship-match opponent Felix Auger-Aliassime. He also had to deal with feeling under the weather for much of the clay-court event.
“I was feeling completely bad. I could not sleep. I could not really walk. I could not breathe. I could not eat,” Rublev told ATPTour.com. “Then somehow before every match, taking a huge dose of painkillers, somehow I was able to switch.
"In the end I guess it forced me to play much more free, because the only way I could somehow win the matches was to play aggressive and try to run less. I guess it didn’t give me an option. There was only one way if I wanted to fight, so I did it with fewer blocks in my head and I was able to play my best tennis of the year feeling at my worst physically.”
Photo Credit: Corinne Dubreuil/ATP Tour
Photo Credit: Corinne Dubreuil/ATP Tour
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