Joao Fonseca's forehand quality is in the middle of the pack according to statistics. But dig deeper, and you will find a stroke with incredible potential.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis shows that while the 18-year-old does not currently excel in any specific match-related stat, like first-serve points won or second-serve return points won, his forehand can develop into a fearsome weapon.
What is scary for the rest of the ATP Tour is that according to TDI data, all signs point towards the shot being on the ascendancy.
Since Fonseca has only played eight ATP Tour matches in 2025, his data set is relatively small. However, in those matches, his overall forehand shot quality has been right on the Tour average: 7.5. So why is the stroke one to be feared?
His forehand shot speed on average is 81 miles per hour compared to the Tour average of 76 mph, and his spin rate of 3,019 rotations per minute is well above the Tour average of 2,844 rpm.
One of the players who challenges Fonseca in these metrics is Arthur Fils, a two-time Next Gen ATP Finals presented by PIF competitor. The Frenchman explained why he believes his colleague excels on the forehand.
“He has great timing, I would say. So even if you play fast on the forehand, he can react very fast and play even faster,” Fils said. “I think he has easy power. Like I said with the great timing, you have easy power. He can play very fast without forcing so imagine when he’s going to use all the power, all the strength that he has, it’s going to go very, very fast.”
The reason Fonseca’s shot quality on that wing is average is that his consistency and accuracy are relatively low. He has made 81 per cent of balls in the court (Tour average is 83%), and hit just 22 per cent of his forehands within one metre of the sideline (Tour average is 27%).
2024 ATP Tour Forehand Topspin Speed ⚡ x Spin 🌀
— Tennis Insights (@tennis_insights) December 9, 2024
🔵 Top 5 avg. Speed
🔴 Top 5 avg. Spin
🟡 Top 10 ATP Ranking
Want to find another player, check out the thread ⬇️#TennisInsights | @atptour pic.twitter.com/V1Xf7y3h8I
The teen might not always lace the ball right on the line, which many players need to. But in Fonseca’s case, it does not always matter.
Considering only topspin forehands, Fonseca averages 84 miles per hour and 3,034 rotations per minute. Tennis Channel commentator Mark Petchey, the former British No. 1, has been impressed.
“It feels like he’s taken it to another dimension, if I’m being honest. I know that’s sort of hyperbole, but when I watched him at Next Gen I was super impressed at how easy the winners were,” Petchey said. “He wasn’t having to find the line to hit winners, which is always optically a good sign that something’s a little special.”
In spurts, Fonseca has shown an ability to fire his forehand on all cylinders, leading to devastating results. In the final of the Argentina Open in Buenos Aires, where the Brazilian claimed his first ATP Tour title, Fonseca won the second-set tie-break 7/1. His forehand shot quality was a jaw-dropping 9.8.
Unreal tie-break to take the 🏆#TennisInsights for the breaker:
— Tennis Insights (@tennis_insights) February 16, 2025
Performance Rating 9.68
Conversion Score 83%
Forehand Quality 9.8
Backhand Quality 9.5#clutch #😱
pic.twitter.com/A8sFyTQy0k
In the championship match at last year’s Next Gen ATP Finals presented by PIF, Fonseca claimed the final two sets against Learner Tien 4-0 and 4-2. His forehand shot quality was a 9.6 in both of those sets.
Petchey explained that when you have so much at your disposal, it is sometimes difficult trying to toggle the pace of shot, being more consistent in some big moments when you do not necessarily “need to go nuclear”.
“I think it’s going to be an interesting one for him. At the moment, everything is new, everything is raw. He’s kind of figuring out what works,” Petchey said. “One thing I love about him, is he looks a little bit like Alcaraz: completely fearless in the big moments and he is willing to pull the trigger on it. I hope he doesn’t lose that aspect, but there has obviously got to be, at times, a slightly reduced forehand speed in the bigger moments.”
But when Fonseca's forehand is on, it is on. Case in point, the Brazilian's upset of Andrey Rublev at this year's Australian Open.
“Obviously down in Australia, when he took on Rublev, the same thing happened,” Petchey said. “Against somebody that is that good, has so much firepower like Andrey has off the forehand, to see somebody make Rublev’s forehand look sort of mid-tier in terms of pace was astonishing.”
- Tom Callingham contributed research and analysis to this story.
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